The well-marked low-pressure area above the southeast and the adjacent area of ??the East-Central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep concentrated on a depression on Monday morning.
It is located about 370 kilometers southwest of Panjim; 690 km south-south-west of Mumbai and 920 km south-south-west of Surat. The depression is likely to worsen to deep depression in the next 12 hours and to a severe cyclone storm called Nisarga by Wednesday.
The cyclone track released by the authorities of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that Nisarga will cross very close to the Mumbai coast when entering the country. Maharashtra and Gujarat are on alert before the cyclone because very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the states on Wednesday and Thursday.Initially, Nisarga will likely move north until Tuesday morning and then return the north-northeast districts on Wednesday evening, crossing the coasts of north Maharashtra and south Gujarat between Harihareshwar (Raigad, Maharashtra) and the Union of Daman area. When it crosses the coast as a severe cyclone storm, it has a wind speed of 105 to 115 km / h and gusts of up to 125 km / h. According to the IMD, very heavy to extremely heavy rain is expected in Konkan, Goa, parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat by Thursday.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the southeastern Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep area and along and off the coast of Kerala for the next 48 hours. the East Central Arabian Sea and along and off the coast of Karnataka-Goa until Wednesday; along the east-central Arabian Sea and off the coast of Maharashtra and along the northeastern Arabian Sea and off the coast of Gujarat on Wednesday and Thursday, as the sea is expected to be very rough.
The conditions for intensifying the cyclone are favorable since the sea surface temperature is around 30 to 32 degrees Celsius, compared to a normal value of 28 degrees Celsius this season. “We expect the cyclone system once formed to intensify rapidly as the sea surface temperature is high, wind shear (variation in wind speed) is low and the ocean’s thermal potential is also high,” said Sunita Devi, who is responsible for the cyclones at IMD on Sunday.